The 1st Sino-German Workshop on Reliability of Complex Systems
November 5-6, 2021, Xi’an, China
The Sino-German Workshop on Reliability of Complex Systems (SGWRCS) is organized following the Sino-German Mobility program with title “Bayesian inference and updating for reliability analysis of complex systems under incomplete knowledge” (01.01.2021-31.12.2023), and this is the first edition, with Prof. Michael Beer (Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany) and Assoc. Prof. Pengfei Wei (UQ&3R Group, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, China) as chairs.
The first edition of SGWRCS is held in Xi’an, China, on November 5-6, 2021, in virtual form, with the focus on Reliability Engineering, Risk Management, and Resilience of complex engineering systems appeared in key infrastructures and advanced manufacturing, but also covers related topics such as uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, model updating, model verification & validation, design under uncertainties, etc., across different disciplinaries.
The first twenty years of this century have witnessed great threats of natural disasters (such as big floods, earthquake, and snowstorms) to the human society, and it shows the trend that those ‘black swans’ are no longer rare cases. This brings new challenges to the key infrastructures of human society. Reliability, Risk and Resilience are then the core of studies for those facilities to stand up to the disasters, which, in turn, show great significance for protecting people’s lives and property. Many challenges, such as complexities of infrastructures and ubiquitous uncertainties caused by either lack of knowledge or natural variability, exist when come to those key topics, and addressing those challenges is the main objective of the above-mentioned Sino-Germany mobility program. With this workshop, the organizers, are looking forward to new ideas and novel methods, within, but not limited to, the above scopes.
This activity is organized under auspices of
the Sino-German Mobility Programme (01.01.2021-31.12.2023) with title “Bayesian inference and updating for reliability analysis of complex systems under incomplete knowledge” and grant number “M-0175”, granted by the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion, and,
the Committee on Probability and Statistics in Physical Sciences (C(PS)^2) of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability
Michael Beer, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany, firstname.lastname@example.org
Pengfei Wei, Northwestern Polytechnical University, China, email@example.com
Chairs of Workshop
Prof. Dr. Michael Beer
Professor, head of Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover (LUH), Germany
Prof. Beer obtained Masters degree (1995) and Doctoral degree (2001) from TU Dresden. He is currently a professor and head of the Institute for Risk and Reliability at LUH (full-time), guest professor at Tongji University (part-time) and professor at the University of Liverpool (part-time). Before the present position, he has held academic positions at Rice University, TU Dresden, National University of Singapore, and University of Liverpool. He serves as the associate editor of the ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems (Part A and Part B) and International Journal of Reliability and Safety. He is the editorial members of many other reputable international journals such as Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, Structural Safety, Engineering Structures and Computers and Structures. He is the chair of the committee on Probability and Statistics in the Physical Sciences C(PS)2 under the auspices of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability (2018-2020), the Co-Chair of Risk and Resilience Measurements Committee of Infrastructure Resilience Division of ASCE, etc.
Assoc. Prof. Pengfei Wei
Associate Professor, UQ&3R Group and Institute for Design and Protection of Equipments and Infrastructures, School of Mechanics, Civil Engineering and Architecture, Northwestern Polytechnical University (NWPU), China
Assoc. Prof. Wei obtained bachelor’s degree (2010) and doctoral degree (2015) from NWPU, all in flight vehicle engineering with specific direction of Reliability Engineering. He is awarded the Humboldt Fellowship for postdoctoral researchers, granted by which, he conducted collaborative research at LUH from 2018 to 2020 with Prof. Beer. Since 2015, he is an associate professor at School of Mechanics, Civil Engineering and Architecture of NWPU. He serves as an editorial member of the international journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety. He is the principal investigators of three ongoing projects (a Sino-Germany mobility program co-hosted with Prof. Beer and two NSFC grants). He won the Second Prize of National Science and Technology Progress (2019, ranked 10) and the Second prize of Science and Technology of Shaanxi Province (2016, ranked 4th). His research interests include Uncertainty quantification, risk, reliability, and resilience of engineering structures and complex systems, as well as Bayesian Numerical Methods with application in computational mechanics.
Keynote Lecture 1: Quantifying and understanding uncertainty in operational modal analysis
Prof. Ivan Au
Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
Dr Au obtained BEng and MPhil from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and PhD (2001) from the California Institute ofTechnology, all in civil engineering. Before the present position at NTU, he has held academic positions at NTU, City University of Hong Kong and University of Liverpool. Currently he is also visiting professor at Tokyo City University.
Dr Au performs fundamental and applied research in engineering reliability methods and structural health monitoring. He has developed an advanced Monte Carlo method called Subset Simulation that has found applications in uncertainty propagation and rare event simulation in different disciplines. See monograph ‘Engineering Risk Assessment with Subset Simulation’ (Wiley). Dr Au is experienced in full-scale dynamic testing of structures and has consulted on structural vibration projects on long-span pedestrian bridges, large-span floors, super-tall buildings and microtremors for seismic microzonation. Recent research in this area focuses on Bayesian formulation, computation, practical implementation, and understanding of uncertainty for ambient modal identification and structural system identification of full-scale structures. See monograph ‘Operational Modal Analysis: Modelling, Bayesian Inference, Uncertainty Laws’ (Springer).
Dr Au chaired the ASCE Dynamics Committee (2014-17); is Associate Editor of Structural Health Monitoring (Sage), Earthquake Spectra (EERI/Sage) and Journal of Risk & Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering (ASCE-ASME); and is Editorial Board Member of Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics (Elsevier).
Keynote Lecture 2: Intelligent Risk Management by Artificial Intelligence
Prof. Enrico Zio
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CRC, Sophia Antipolis, France
Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy
Prof. Enrico Zio received the MSc degree in nuclear engineering from Politecnico di Milano in 1991 and in mechanical engineering from UCLA in 1995, and the Ph.D. degree in nuclear engineering from Politecnico di Milano and in probabilistic risk assessment at MIT in 1996 and 1998, respectively. He is currently full professor at the Centre for research on Risk and Crises (CRC) of Ecole de Mines, ParisTech, PSL University, France, full professor and President of the Alumni Association at Politecnico di Milano, Italy, eminent scholar at Kyung Hee University, Republic of Korea, distinguished guest professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, adjunct professor at City University of Hong Kong, Beihang University and Wuhan University.
In 2020, he has been awarded the prestigious Humboldt Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, one the world's most prestigious research awards across all scientific disciplines. In 2021, he has been nominated Ambassador of the 4TU Centre for Resilience Engineering (4TU RE), the knowledge centre in Resilience Engineering of the four universities of technology in the Netherlands (Delft University of Technology, Eindhoven University of Technology, University of Twente and Wageningen University and Research). Still in 2021, he has been named Fellow of the of the Prognostics & Health Management Society a world recognized scientist in the area of reliability centered, condition based and predictive maintenance.
His research focuses on the modeling of the failure-repair-maintenance behavior of components and complex systems, for the analysis of their reliability, maintainability, prognostics, safety, vulnerability, resilience and security characteristics, and on the development and use of Monte Carlo simulation methods, artificial intelligence techniques and optimization heuristics. He is author and co-author of seven books and more than 500 papers on international journals, Chairman and Co-Chairman of several international Conferences, associate editor of several international journals and referee of more than 20.
Keynote Lecture 3: Risk based SHM and population-based SHM
Prof. Keith Worden
Professor, Dynamic Research Group (DRG) Academic leader, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sheffield, UK,
Prof. Worden began academic life as a theoretical physicist, with a degree from York University and a PhD in Mechanical Engineering from Heriot-Watt University eventually followed. A period of research at Manchester University led to an appointment at the University of Sheffield in 1995, where he has happily remained since. His main focus is on the application of ideas from signal processing and machine learning to problems in structural dynamics including: nonlinear dynamics and system identification, structural health and condition monitoring and uncertainty analysis. Particular interests at the moment include Bayesian methods and population-based structural health monitoring. His initial application domain was aerospace industry, but that has widened to include civil infrastructure and energy, with a particular focus on wind energy systems at the moment.
Keynote Lecture 4: An introductory overview of the survival signature for system reliability
Prof. Frank Coolen
Professor, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, UK
Frank Coolen completed a first degree (comparable to MSc) in Mathematical Engineering at Eindhoven University of Technology (The Netherlands) in 1990, followed by PhD (1994) in Mathematics, also at Eindhoven. Throughout his studies, he specialized in Statistics and Operations Research, with particular interest in Reliability Theory. He then moved to the University of Durham (UK), Department of Mathematical Sciences, where he still works as Professor of Statistics. One main area of his research is Statistical Methodology, in particular he is the founder and main developer of Nonparametric Predictive Inference, a frequentist inference methodology based on few modelling assumptions, enabled through the use of imprecise probability to quantify uncertainty. A further main area of research is Reliability Theory, where among other contributions he proposed the survival signature for system reliability, a major tool which simplifies quantification of reliability for large systems. Most of his works are joint with his wife and collaborator Tahani Coolen-Maturi. Their joint research group consists of many PhD students, and they frequently welcome short-term and long-term visitors to Durham. He has supervised over 20 PhD students to completion at Durham, and has co-supervised several more around the world. Frank is on editorial boards of 9 academic journals and frequently serves in committees for international conferences and panels for international research funding organisations. He has (co-)authored over 300 papers, most of them in international journals.
Keynote Lecture 5: Decision-theoretic sensitivity measures for reliability assessment of engineering systems
Prof. Dr. Daniel Straub
Professor, Engineering Risk Analysis Group Leader, TU München, Germany
Daniel Straub is Professor and Group Leader at the Engineering Risk Analysis group at Technical University of Munich (TUM). His work is centered on developing physics-based stochastic models and methods for decision support in infrastructure, environmental and general engineering systems, with a particular focus on Bayesian techniques and decision analysis for risk and reliability analysis. Daniel is particularly interested in linking fundamental research to application-specific challenges. He is developing novel models and algorithms for reliability assessment, data analysis, decision, risk and sensitivity analysis. Concurrently, he works successfully with partners in multiple industries, including infrastructure engineering, offshore and marine engineering, geotechnical engineering, natural hazards, automotive as well as aero- and astronautical engineering. He is active in multiple professional organizations and code committees, and in the editorial boards of the leading journals in engineering reliability and risk. His awards include the ETH Silbermedaille and the Early Achievement Research Award of IASSAR. He is also an Honorary Professor at the University of Aberdeen, UK.
Keynote Lecture 6: Reliability Estimation, Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Design of Stochastic Linear Dynamical Systems
Prof. Marcos Valdebenito
Professor, Faculty of Engineering and Sciences at Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Viña del Mar, Chile
Marcos Valdebenito is full professor of the Faculty of Engineering and Sciences at Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Viña del Mar, Chile. In 2016, he received the prestigious K.J. Bathe Award for the best paper published in Computers & Structures in the years 2014 and 2015 by an author below the age of 40. In 2018, he was awarded a “Fellowship for Experienced Researchers” from the Humboldt Foundation. His main research interest is the development of strategies for uncertainty quantification in computational mechanics. Within this broad field, his particular research interests are reliability assessment by means of advanced simulation methods, stochastic finite elements, reliability-based optimization and fuzzy analysis.
Day 1: 14:30-20:30, Friday, November 5, 2021, Beijing Time
Day 2: 14:30-21:40, Saturday, November 6, 2021, Beijing Time
For details, see attached file. Besides the six keynote lectures, there are also nine invited lectures from outstanding young researchers, and seven student lectures. All the information can be found in the attached workshop programme.
Instructions for Speakers and Audiences
All the lectures will be given via a teleconferencing system using Tencent Meeting app (for Chinese partictipants) or VooV Meeting app (for participants outside of China), with the same virtual conference room information. The room information for the two days are given below.
Meeting Topic: Sino-German Workshop on Reliability of Complex Systems, Nov 5
Meeting ID: 836 587 421
Meeting Password: 1105
Meeting Topic: Sino-German Workshop on Reliability of Complex Systems, Nov 6
Meeting ID: 191 900 348
Meeting Password: 1106